Economy
Empire strikes back: EU "weapon" against Hungary, Poland in the works
The news agency clearly relies (also) on information obtained from Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker’s environment.
The EU executive will unveil proposals on Wednesday as part of the 2021-2027 budget that will tie funding, on which poorer eastern countries rely, to respect for the rule of law, EU officials told Reuters.
Note that net EU spending accounts for more than 4% of public expenditure in Poland and over 7% in Hungary.
The Commission believes it has a range of tools to clip the wings of its critics. Juncker’s goal, people familiar with his thinking say, is to heal an east-west rift before he steps down in 18 months and to bequeath a Union that is reshaping itself after losing one of its Big Three powers, Reuters said.
That dictates a softly approach which leaves critics of Orbán, whom EU chiefs call “The Viktator", and Poland’s dominant politician, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, less than satisfied.
The news agency does not say, however, what set of criteria will be established and how compliance could be assessed objectively, which could be the weakest link in this particular chain. Hence it remains a question how the new rules could be adopted by the leaders of all 27 member states.
EU officials expect Poland to back down enough next month on reforms of its judiciary to avoid the Commission having to follow through on a threat to try to suspend its EU voting rights — a compromise the EU executive believes will have been achieved through fear of penalties in the upcoming EU budget.
Tensions with eastern states could also be defused by tough EU action to keep out irregular migrants, by a prospective compromise on sharing out the task of looking after refugees and by efforts to deal with complaints from former Soviet-bloc countries that they are treated as second-class citizens.
Orbán has already backed down after losing cases to the EC in the European Court of Justice, including on a move to remove senior judges and a data privacy supervisor. He also accepted an ECJ rejection of his attempts to overturn a Union policy that would oblige member states to take in a share of asylum-seekers.
The executive expects to win infringement proceedings to block new Hungarian laws aimed at curbing funding from abroad, notably by Hungarian-American financier George Soros, of a university and of liberal non-government organizations.
The European Parliament has urged the Commission to launch moves to suspend Hungary. Opponents say more should be done to stop misuse of EU funds by businesses close to Orbán.Benedek Jávor, a Hungarian opposition member of the European Parliament, says the Commission has been “too soft" and checks on the executive’s ability to step into national politics mean the system is “artificially paralyzed".
Countries face a high bar to prove democratic credentials to join the EU but sitting members face less scrutiny, he said.
The EU Treaty would not let Hungary and Poland to be denied the payment of structural funds beyond 2020 despite concerns over their rule of law deficiencies and refusal to take in refugees. There are two possible "backdoor" solutions, though, said Carsten Nickel, Deputy Director of Research at Teneo Intelligence in Brussels, in February.Front page photo by MTI/EPA Olivier Hosle
The EU executive will unveil proposals on Wednesday as part of the 2021-2027 budget that will tie funding, on which poorer eastern countries rely, to respect for the rule of law, EU officials told Reuters.
“Conditionality will be there," one senior source said. A second said the budget pressure would be a “game-changer".
“We have leaders flirting with another set of values," said a third, referring to Orbán’s call for “illiberal democracy" and his attacks on an open refugee policy which he says is promoted by Brussels officials set on imposing a new “empire" on Hungary.This is much more of a threat to Europe than Brexit.
Budget details are still being hammered out, but under the proposals, funds could be withheld from countries which fail to abide by treaty obligations to respect the rule of law, such as by having independent courts.Note that net EU spending accounts for more than 4% of public expenditure in Poland and over 7% in Hungary.
The Commission believes it has a range of tools to clip the wings of its critics. Juncker’s goal, people familiar with his thinking say, is to heal an east-west rift before he steps down in 18 months and to bequeath a Union that is reshaping itself after losing one of its Big Three powers, Reuters said.
That dictates a softly approach which leaves critics of Orbán, whom EU chiefs call “The Viktator", and Poland’s dominant politician, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, less than satisfied.
The news agency does not say, however, what set of criteria will be established and how compliance could be assessed objectively, which could be the weakest link in this particular chain. Hence it remains a question how the new rules could be adopted by the leaders of all 27 member states.
EU officials expect Poland to back down enough next month on reforms of its judiciary to avoid the Commission having to follow through on a threat to try to suspend its EU voting rights — a compromise the EU executive believes will have been achieved through fear of penalties in the upcoming EU budget.
Tensions with eastern states could also be defused by tough EU action to keep out irregular migrants, by a prospective compromise on sharing out the task of looking after refugees and by efforts to deal with complaints from former Soviet-bloc countries that they are treated as second-class citizens.
East to west: Europe must breathe with both lungs. Otherwise our continent will struggle for air
, Juncker said in September as he laid out policies for the rest of his mandate in what one aide described as “a love letter to eastern Europe".“We will work hard to keep them hooked in to the system," said another. “With the right carrots — and sticks."
Commission faces test of wills with Orbán
EU officials expect Hungary’s Prime Minister him to step up challenges to Brussels but say legal sanctions have forced him to back away from some actions and voice confidence that they can do so again, Reuters said.Orbán has already backed down after losing cases to the EC in the European Court of Justice, including on a move to remove senior judges and a data privacy supervisor. He also accepted an ECJ rejection of his attempts to overturn a Union policy that would oblige member states to take in a share of asylum-seekers.
The executive expects to win infringement proceedings to block new Hungarian laws aimed at curbing funding from abroad, notably by Hungarian-American financier George Soros, of a university and of liberal non-government organizations.
The European Parliament has urged the Commission to launch moves to suspend Hungary. Opponents say more should be done to stop misuse of EU funds by businesses close to Orbán.Benedek Jávor, a Hungarian opposition member of the European Parliament, says the Commission has been “too soft" and checks on the executive’s ability to step into national politics mean the system is “artificially paralyzed".
Countries face a high bar to prove democratic credentials to join the EU but sitting members face less scrutiny, he said.
The EU Treaty would not let Hungary and Poland to be denied the payment of structural funds beyond 2020 despite concerns over their rule of law deficiencies and refusal to take in refugees. There are two possible "backdoor" solutions, though, said Carsten Nickel, Deputy Director of Research at Teneo Intelligence in Brussels, in February.Front page photo by MTI/EPA Olivier Hosle
