Influenza positivity rate almost doubles in Hungary

On the 51st week of 2024 (16-22 December), 234,700 people sought medical help with acute respiratory infections (ARI), including 30,000 people (+11.5% w/w) with flu-like symptoms, according to data released by the National Centre for Public Health and Pharmacy (NNGYK) on Tuesday.

Note that both the 43rd and 44th weeks had only four working days due to national holidays, hence the fewer number of cases in the statistics and the dips in the graphs. The 52nd week will certainly show a moderation in infections but only due to the holiday season when fewer people go to the doctor, but a subsequent pickup is inevitable. The respiratory season (often and erroneously referred to as 'flu season') generally peaks between the 4th and the 9th week of the year.

A short-term comparison (for the last three seasons of respiratory illnesses) shows that the number of patients with ARI and also with flu-like symptoms was higher than in the 2022/23 respiratory season and lower than a year ago.

The share of flu-like symptoms in ARI was up at 12.8 from 11.6%, but was lower than a year earlier (13.8%), while exceeding the 2022/23 figure (8.1%).

We also have data for ARIs and flu-like symptoms per 100,000 population, although a long-term data series is available only for the latter.

in terms of both ari and flu-like symptoms per 100,000 population, the situation was worse only once, in 2023/24.

A total of 300 samples were tested on the 51st week (up from 248 a week earlier), of which 18 came back COVID-19 positive (down from 21 on the 50th week), i.e. they detected coronavirus in 6.0% of the samples, which compares with over 40% a year ago when 290 samples were tested, of which 118 showed the presence of SARS-CoV-2.

The share of influenza in the tested samples is a tad above the previous two years' respective prints, while that of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) remains lower.

The following graph shows the weekly positivity rates for influenza (green), Covid (orange), and RSV (blue) for the past three respiratory seasons up to the 51st week.

The influenza positivity rate first exceeded the coronavirus positivity rate on the 50th week in the current respiratory season, while the 'switch' took place only on the 2nd week in the 2023/24 respiratory season and on the 51st week two years ago.

As regards the individual positivity rates in all the samples, the 'switch' never took place in the 2023/24 respiratory season (i.e. the total number of positive Covid tests in all samples tested remained higher than the number of positive flu tests) in and occurred by the end of the 3rd week in the 2022/23 season.

As the chart below attests, SARS-CoV-2 continues to be the main pathogen in samples, with 451 positive tests (14.7% of the 3,060 samples tested), followed by influenza (152), rhinovirus (39), RSV (12), parainfluenza (5), human metapneumovirus (HMPV, 4), and adenovirus (2). .

While the COVID-19 positive rate has been dropping, the flu positivity rate has nearly doubled and is already at 26.3%, more than four times higher than the Covid positivity rate of 6.0%.

143 people with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) were hospitalised on the 51st week, of whom 16 (or 11.2%) required intensive care. Both numbers match the 50th week's print. The respective figures for the 51st week of 2023 were 243 people in hospital, and 31 (12.68) in ICUs.

Further breakdown shows that 16 people (11.2% of SARI patients) were hospitalised with SARS-CoV-2 infection, down from 21 a week earlier and well below 168 (69.1%) a year earlier.

Already 38 people in hospital with SARI tested positive for influenza, which corresponds to 26.6% of all SARI patients. This compares with only 7 influenza patients (2.9% of all SARI patients) in hospital on the 51st week of 2023.

Of the 143 people in hospital with SARI, 39 (27.3%) were aged two or younger, while 49 (34.3%) were 60 and above.

Also, 10 (61.5%) of the 16 COVID-19 patients were over 60 years of age, down from 19 (90.5%) a week earlier.

A year ago, of the 243 people in hospital with SARI, 58 (23.9%) were aged two or younger, while 138 (56.8%) were 60 or older. Also, 113 (67.3%) of the 168 COVID-19 patients were over 60 years of age.

The age breakdown of people seeking medical help with ARI and flu-like symptoms are shown below.

The majority of ARI patients belonged in the 0-14 age group throughout the 'flu season' last year, while the share of people going to the doctor with flu-like symptoms was the highest in the 15-34 age group up to the 2nd week of this year when the youngest were in majority until the 40th week bar a couple of weeks towards the end. You fund a heat map in our previous article here.

For the second time in the current respiratory season the number and share of children up to 14 years of age was higher among people with flu-like symptoms than the number and share of those in the 15-34 age group.

Suspected pertussis cases drop in holiday season

We now have whooping cough statistics for the whole of 2024, up to the 52nd week, with multiple weekly data sets were published at once. The charts speak for themselves.

An absolute record of 1,354 cases was reached last year,

with an unexpected jump on the 49th week, and a sudden drop on the last week of the year. The latter should not fool you, the spread of the infection did not just go away, only fewer people seek medical help during the holidays.

Portfolio has previously reported in several articles that the most vulnerable group is infants. In 2024, 299 of all suspected cases, almost one in four, were infants, but the prevalence in the 40-49 age group is also rather high, and over 10% of the cases were in the 60+ age group.

If we look at a wider age group of children between 0 and 14 years of age, they made up 41.3% of all cases last year (559 in total), while up to 19 years the share was 50.7% (686 cases).

Cover photo (for illustration purposes only): Getty Images