Economy 12 December 2024, 3:47pm

Coronavirus positivity rate down, influenza up in Hungary

Portfolio

If it is not a typo the number of Hungarians seeking medical help with acute respiratory infections (ARI) on the 49th week of 2024 was exactly the same as on the preceding week, while the number of those with influenza-like symptoms has risen moderately. In terms of the number of ARI patients per 100,000 population, the current number of infections (also exactly the same as a week earlier) is still the second highest of the past 13 respiratory seasons.

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On the 49th week of 2024 (2-8 December), 214,700 people (oddly exactly the same as on the 48th week) sought medical help with acute respiratory infections, including 24,400 people (+2.6% w/w) with flu-like symptoms, according to data released by the National Centre for Public Health and Pharmacy (NNGYK) on Thursday.

Note that both the 43rd and 44th weeks had only four working days due to national holidays, hence the fewer number of cases in the statistics and the dips in the graphs.

A short-term comparison (for the last three seasons of respiratory illnesses) shows that the number of patients with ARI was lower than in the previous two respiratory seasons, while the number of people seeking medical help with flu-like symptoms was slightly higher a year ago, but lower two years ago.

The share of flu-like symptoms in ARI was up a bit at 10.9% (from 10.6%), and was only a tad lower than a year earlier (11.8%), while exceeding the 2022/23 figure (8.4%).

We also have data for ARIs and flu-like symptoms per 100,000 population, although a long-term data series is available only for the latter.

in terms of ari, the situation is better than in the previous two respiratory seasons, while in terms of flu-like symptoms per 100,000 population was worse only once, in 2023/24.

It is odd, however, that the ARI figure per 100,000 population is exactly the same as a week earlier, just in the case of all ARI patients seeking medical help.

A total of 260 samples were tested on the 49th week (down from 301 a week earlier), of which 21 came back COVID-19 positive (down from 27), i.e. they detected coronavirus in 8.1% of the samples, which compares with 41.3% a year ago when 317 samples were tested, of which 131 showed the presence of SARS-CoV-2.

The share of influenza in the tested samples is a tad above the previous two years' respective prints, while that of RSV remains lower.

As the chart below attests, SARS-CoV-2 continues to be the main pathogen in samples, with 412 positive tests (over 16% of the 2,512 samples tested), followed by rhinovirus (37), influenza (39), RSV (6) and parainfluenza (5).

While the COVID-19 positive rate has been dropping, the flu positivity rate has started to pick up, which was not unexpected.

112 people with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) were hospitalised on the 49th week, of whom 12 (or 10.7%) required intensive care. The respective figures for the 49th week of 2023 were 252 people in hospital, and 27 (10.7%) in ICUs.

Further breakdown shows that 21 people (18.8% of SARI patients) were hospitalised with coronavirus infection, down from 25 a week earlier and well below 182 (72.2%) a year earlier.

Of the 112 people in hospital with SARI, 29 (25.9%) were aged two or younger, while 26 (23.2%) were 60 and above.

Also, 12 (57.1%) of the 21 COVID-19 patients were over 60 years of age, down from 19 (76%) a week earlier.

A year ago, of the 252 people in hospital with SARI, 56 (22.2%) were aged two or younger, while 128 (50.8%) were 60 or older. Also, 114 (62.6%) of the 182 COVID-19 patients were over 60 years of age.

The age breakdown of people seeking medical help with ARI and flu-like symptoms are shown below.

The majority of ARI patients belonged in the 0-14 age group throughout the 'flu season' last year, while the share of people going to the doctor with flu-like symptoms was the highest in the 15-34 age group up to the 2nd week of this year when the youngest were in majority until the 40th week bar a couple of weeks towards the end. You fund a heat map in our previous article here.

Suspected pertussis cases rise

We have whooping cough statistics only up to the 48th week but these show that the pertussis season is winding down, with the number of suspected cases up to 34 from 29 on the 47th week. The microbiological tests performed confirmed the clinical diagnosis in seven cases. Diagnostic tests are still ongoing in the remaining patients.

The total number of cases rose to 1,228, which is a record. Well, look at this chart.

This is how the epidemic went down, (er, up) this year:

Portfolio has previously reported in several articles that the most vulnerable group is infants. They were also the group with the highest incidence on the 46th week. In the first 46 weeks of this year, 264 of all suspected cases, almost one in four, were infants, but the prevalence in the 40-49 age group is also rather high, and over 10% of the cases were in the 60+ age group. If we look at a wider age group of children between 0 and 14 years of age, they make up 42.3% of all cases this year (519 in total), while up to 19 years the share is 51.5% (632 cases).