Economy 21 October 2024, 4:55pm

Hungary flu season shows worst start of the past 14 years

Portfolio

More than 210,000 Hungarians sought medical help with acute respiratory infections, including almost 20,500 people with influenza-like symptoms on the 41st week of 2024. On the 40th week we saw the highest figures of the past 14 flu seasons and the number of people with flu-like symptoms per 100,000 population also remains the highest.

On the 41st week of 2024 (7-13 October), 210,400 people turned to the doctor with acute respiratory infections, including 20,400 people with flu-like symptoms, according to data by the National Centre for Public Health and Pharmacy (NNGYK). The former figure dropped from 228,000 on the 40th week, while the latter jumped from 18,600.

A short-term comparison (for the last three flu seasons) shows that the number of patients with ARI was slightly higher in 2022/23, but much lower a year ago.

The share of flu-like symptoms in ARI was 8.2% on the 40th and 9.7% on the 41st week, the highest ratios in the past three seasons.

We also have data for ARIs and flu-like symptoms per 100,000 population, although a long-term data series is available only for the latter.

These both show that the current season of respiratory infections is the worst in many years.

In the current flu-season, the surveillance service monitors the occurrence of influenza-like illnesses and acute respiratory infections based on data provided by 1,304 general practitioners and general paediatricians, which is the lowest figure in the NNGYK's publicly available database. The trend is not reassuring (see chart below).

A total of 248 samples were tested on the 41st week, of which 73 came back COVID-19 positive, i.e. they detected coronavirus in about 30%% of the samples. This compares with 26% a year ago, but then only 54 samples were tested and 14 showed the presence of SARS-CoV-2.

165 people with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) were hospitalised on the 41st week, of whom 19 (or 11.5%) required intensive care. Both The respective figures for the 40th week of 2023 were 154 people in hospital, and 17 (11.0%) in ICUs.

Further breakdown shows that 103 people (62.4% of SARI patients) were hospitalised with coronavirus infection, down from 116 a week ago and fewer than 110 (65.1%) a year ago.

Of the 165 people in hospital with SARI, 31 (18.8%) were aged two or younger, while 99 (60%) were 60 and above. Also, 83 (78.6%) of the 103 COVID-19 patients were over 60 years of age.

A year ago, of the 169 people in hospital with SARI, 27 (16%) were aged two or younger, while 103 (60.9%) were 60 or older. Also, 85 (77.3%) of the 110 COVID-19 patients were over 60 years of age.

The age breakdown of people seeking medical help with ARI and flu-like symptoms are shown below, including a comparison with data a year ago.

The majority of ARI patients belonged in the 0-14 age group throughout the flu-season last year, while the share of people going to the doctor with flu-like symptoms was the highest in the 15-34 age group up to the 2nd week of this year when the youngest were in majority until the 40th week bar a couple of weeks towards the end.

Here's a heat map of the ARI and flu age breakdowns for last year.

Vaccination

one of the most important tasks in the preparation for the flu season is to organise and administer free flu vaccinations,

the NNGYK said in a press release last week.

The flu shots have already started to be delivered and are expected to be available in GP offices and occupational health clinics across the country from the end of October.

The vaccine becomes fully effective two to three weeks after the jab, and their efficacy lasts for months. The virus constantly changes that is why new shots are developed every year.

As in last season, 949,000 doses of the 3Fluart flu vaccine are available for the at-risk group of people aged 3 years and over, to be used free of charge this season.

Based on the experience of the past decades, the spread of influenza viruses in Hungary is observed from the end of November and usually reaches epidemic levels in January, so it is recommended to get the flu vaccine before the outbreak starts, i.e. in November or December.

Vaccination against influenza is particularly recommended for people over 60 years of age, the chronically ill, health and social workers and pregnant women.

The lowest number of flu vaccinations administered in the last 14 years was in the 2023/2024 season.

According to aggregate data available at the NNGYK, a total of 594,465 people over the age of three received free flu vaccination, of whom 442,943 (74.5%) were aged 60 or over. While this percentage may seem high, and it is in fact the highest since the 2018/19 flu season, another comparison paints a gloomier picture.

The actual number of shots administered to Hungarians aged 60 and above was by far the lowest in the past six flu seasons. (We have asked the NNGYK for the time series going back 14 years and we'll update our charts as soon as we get the data.) If we look at the share of the elderly vaccinated as a percentage of their own age group, we also have the lowest figure (17.5%) of the past six years. So, it's all a matter of what you want to emphasise really.

The 'improvement' highlighted by the authority stems from the fact that while the number of 3Fluart shots administered in 2023/24 plummeted 50% from the 2020/21 peak during the covid pandemic, the number of shots administered in the 60+ age group went down by "only" 38%. The respective decreases compared to 2018/19 (i.e. a "normal" year) were 17.3% and 13.3%.

Influenza ends 'rule' of pertussis

On the 41st week of 2024, 24 suspected cases of whooping cough were registered by GPs in Hungary, according to the latest weekly report from the National Centre for Public Health and Pharmacy (NNGYK). It confirmed the clinical diagnoses with microbiological tests in 7 cases and diagnostic tests still ongoing in the remaining patients.

The 41st week is the sixth week in a row that caused a positive surprise, as experts projected a rise in the number of suspected pertussis cases due to the start of the school year and the consequent increase in social contacts.

The number of suspected pertussis cases reported for the 40th week brings the cumulative number to 978 this year, an outstanding figure compared to previous years when only a few cases were found in Hungary. This is strange, because the high rate of vaccination has meant that GPs have generally encountered these diseases mostly in textbooks, and very seldom in practice.

Portfolio has previously reported in several articles that the most vulnerable group is infants. They were also the group with the highest incidence on the 41st week. In the first 41 weeks of this year, 206 of all suspected cases, practically one in five, were infants, but the prevalence in the 40-49 age group is also rather high. If we look at a wider age group of children between 0 and 14 years of age, they make up 42.9% of all cases this year (420 in total), while up to 19 years the share is 52.8% (516 cases).