Economy 16 November 2023, 12:05pm

Respiratory infections show natural rebound in Hungary

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After two weeks shortened by national holidays, the number of Hungarians seeking medical help with severe acute respiratory infections, including influenza-like symptoms has - unsurprisingly - risen sharply on the 45th week of 2023. The number of tests performed remains extremely low, with about a quarter of them showing the presence of SARS-Cov-2. Almost three quarters of hospitalised SARI patients are treated with coronavirus infection.

The flu season generally peaks between the 7th and 10th week of the year, but the highest figures can vary greatly from one year to another. The coronavirus pandemic, for instance, put a serious dent into the spread of the flu (see graph below).

On the 45th week, a total of 162,900 people sought medical help with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI), of whom 15,500 (9.5%) had flu-like symptoms. The former figure marks a nearly 30% increase over the 44th week and the latter an 45% rise, but we need to highlight that the base week had only four working days due to a national holiday (1 Nov, just like the one before that: 23 October), i.e. fewer people went to the doctor. Hence the jump in the numbers on the 45th week, in line with what we projected last week.

The graph below allows a comparison with weeks 40 to 45 of 2022, showing lower figures for the number of SARI "patients" and a higher figure for those that visited GPs with flu-like symptoms.

We can also compare the SARI and flu numbers for 100,000 inhabitants. These charts will say more when we have more than just a couple weeks of data, but they already strongly suggest that the flu season may be less severe in 2023/24 than in 2022/23.

We need to highlight that this year authorities perform way more tests than a year ago, even though the number of samples tested remains extremely low (272 in total on a national level last week).

As authorities have been publishing separate SARI and flu statistics only since 2022, a longer-term comparison is possible only for the number of people seeking medical help with influenza-like symptoms.

There were 158 people in hospital with SARI on the 45th week, versus 154 a week earlier. Nearly 72% of them were treated with COVID-19, up from 66%. Coronavirus was the main pathogen found in samples early in the flu season last year too. Actually, the first time the share of flu viruses in samples was higher than the share of SARS-CoV-2 occurred only at the start of this year in the 2022/23 flu season.

93 (82.3%) of the 113 COVID-19 patients were aged 60 and over, which marks an increase in their numbers (102) but a moderation in their percentage (89.2%) a week ago.

Nearly 15% of those hospitalised with SARI were children aged 2 years or younger, while nearly 68% of them were aged 60 and over. Both figures correspond to a drop from a week ago. Their numbers have not changed meaningfully.

Another important indicator of the severity of an epidemic is how many of those hospitalised end up in the intensive care unit (or in the morgue for that matter). The NNK does not reveal mortality stats, though.

Of the 158 in hospital, 15 were in the ICU, which corresponds to a 9.5% ratio, down from 10.4% a week earlier.

Finally, we have an age breakdown both for SARI and flu patients. Children up to the age of 14 are on top of the SARI age rankings in terms of numbers, while they are only on the 3rd spot in the flu rankings, behind those between 35 and 59 and the hardest-hit 15-34 age group. The right-hand charts show the share of people with SARI and flu-like symptoms by age group.