Economy 9 November 2023, 12:35pm

Hungary influenza season still in a lull on paper

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Fewer Hungarians sought medical help with severe acute respiratory infections and influenza-like symptoms on the 44th week of 2023 (30 Oct - 5 Nov) than on the previous week, data by the National Public Health Centre (NNK) showed on Thursday. The number of those hospitalised with SARI remains largely unchanged from the 43rd week, and while the majority of them tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, the share of Covid-19 patients has dropped.

The flu season generally peaks between the 7th and 10th week of the year, but the highest figures can vary greatly from one year to another. The coronavirus pandemic, for instance, put a serious dent into the spread of the flu (see graph below).

On the 44rd week, a total of 125,500 people sought medical help with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI), of whom 10,700 (8.5%) had flu-like symptoms. The former figure marks a 26% decline over the 42nd week and the latter an 21% fall, but we need to highlight that both weeks had only four working days due to national holidays (23 Oct, 1 Nov), i.e. fewer people went to the doctor. Hence, a jump in the numbers on the 45th week should not come as a surprise.

The graph below allows a comparison with weeks 40 to 44 of 2022, showing lower figures both for the number of SARI "patients" and those that visited GPs with flu-like symptoms.

We can also compare the SARI and flu numbers for 100,000 inhabitants. These charts will say more when we have more than just a couple weeks of data, but they already strongly suggest that the flu season may be less severe in 2023/24 than in 2022/23.

As authorities have been publishing separate SARI and flu statistics only since 2022, a longer-term comparison is possible only for the number of people seeking medical help with influenza-like symptoms.

There were 154 people in hospital with SARI on the 44th week, versus 153 a week earlier. Two thirds of them were treated with COVID-19, down from 74%. Coronavirus was the main pathogen found in samples early in the flu season last year too. Actually, the first time the share of flu viruses in samples was higher than the share of SARS-CoV-2 occurred only at the start of this year in the 2022/23 flu season.

Another important indicator of the severity of an epidemic is how many of those hospitalised end up in the intensive care unit (or in the morgue for that matter). The NNK does not reveal mortality stats, though.

Of the 154 in hospital, 16 were in the ICU, which corresponds to a 10.4% ratio, down from 13.1% a week earlier.

Finally, we have an age breakdown both for SARI and flu patients. Children up to the age of 14 are on top of the SARI age rankings, while they are only on the 3rd spot in the flu rankings, behind those between 35 and 59 and the hardest-hit 15-34 age group.