Economy 3 November 2023, 3:45pm

Influenza season kicks off in Hungary

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The National Public Health Centre (NNK) has released new respiratory illnesses statistics on Friday, four weeks' worth of data at once no less. Compared to the previous years, we are worse off than in the previous years in terms of the number of people seeking medical help with influenza-like symptoms but better when we look at the number of those with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI).

The health authority in charge usually starts publishing statistics on severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) and people seeking medical help with influenza-like symptoms on the 40th week of the year, with the last report coming out on the 20th week of the following year.

Given that this is already the 44th week of 2023 and no such data were available, we have enquired at the National Public Health Centre (NNK) about the reason for the delay and when the first figures can be expected. The swift response was received not only in e-mail but also in the much appreciated form of an update on the NNK's designated website, with no less than four weeks of data published there at once.

The flu season generally peaks between the 7th and 10th week of the year, but the highest figures can vary greatly from one year to another. The coronavirus pandemic, for instance, put a serious dent into the spread of the flu (see graph below).

Here's our main findings from the first flu/SARI reports of the 2023/24 season.

On the 43rd week, a total of 169,300 people sought medical help with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI), of whom 13,600 (8.0%) had flu-like symptoms. The former figure marks a 13.7% decline over the 42nd week and the latter an 8.1% fall, but we need to highlight that it was a 4-day week (23 October was a national holiday), i.e. fewer people went to the doctor. The same will apply to the 44th week when 1 November (Wednesday) was a national holiday.

The graph below allows a comparison with weeks 40 to 43 of 2022, showing that in terms of SARI "patients" we are now better off, while the number of people coming down with the flu (and visiting the GP) is a tad higher.

We can also compare the SARI and flu numbers for 100,000 inhabitants. These charts will say more when we have more than just a couple weeks of data, but they suggest that the flu season may be milder in 2023/24 than in 2022/23.

There were 153 people in hospital with SARI on the 43rd week, down from 170 a week earlier. However, almost three quarters of them were treated with COVID-19. Coronavirus was the main pathogen found in samples early in the flu season last year too. Actually, the first time the share of flu viruses in samples were not higher than the share of Covid until the start of this year.

Another important indicator of the severity of an epidemic is how many of those hospitalised end up in the intensive care unit (or in the morgue for that matter). The NNK does not reveal mortality stats, though.

Of the 153 in hospital, 20 were in the ICU, which corresponds to a 13.1% ratio, up from 4.7% a week earlier.

Finally, we have an age breakdown both for SARI and flu patients. Children up to the age of 14 are on top of the SARI age rankings, while they are only on the 3rd spot in the flu rankings, behind those between 35 and 59 and the hardest-hit 15-34 age group.