Economy 19 May 2023, 7:12pm

More people with respiratory problems seek medical help in Hungary than a week ago

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The number of Hungarians seeking medical help with severe acute respiratory illnesses has surprisingly risen on the 19th week of 2023 after a steady fall since 9th week. This, however, does not mean that the epidemic petering out since the 10th week of the year has flared up again, with the number of people going to the doctor with influenza-like symptoms down 11% per 100,000 inhabitants. according to the latest report of the National Centre for Public Health (NNK).

We no longer publish separate reports on the latest COVID-19 statistics, but the report on the flu is a good occasion to take a look at least on the main figures. So, here you go.

If consistency is not the first word that pops into your mind when looking at these colours, or at the chart below for that matter, it's not your fault. For the 5 days (!) up to 9 May, the coronavirus information centre reported 224 people with SARS-CoV-2 in hospital, with 8 of them on ventilator. For the 10 days (!) before that it reported 95 people in hospital and did not even give a number of those requiring mechanical ventilation.

In any case, here are a couple of the key figures.

Two weeks ago, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared that COVID-19 no longer represents a "global health emergency". This does not mean, however, that the pandemic, which claimed at least seven million lives, is over. The head of WHO, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that the true figure was "likely" closer to 20 million deaths - nearly three times the official estimate - and he warned that the virus remained a significant threat.

Is the flu epidemic over yet?

Yes, you can say that, even though there's a fluke in the data for the week up to 17 May.

The NNK said that on the 19th week of the year, 122,3000 people went to the doctor with symptoms of severe acute respiratory infections, which marks a 1.8% rise from last week (120,100), and comes after a continuous decline since the 9th week of the year. 5,600 (4.6%) of them were diagnosed with influenza-like illness, in contrast with 6,300 (5.2%) a week earlier.

If it were not for the holiday season when people are less inclined to visit the GP's office and complain about "just a wee cough", we would not see that dip towards end-2022 in the lines below.

Here's another chart attesting the peak in the epidemic was left behind two and a half months ago.

The SARI figure per 100,000 population shows a 1.8% growth, versus a 13.1% drop a week ago, and the number of flu-like symptoms has fallen by 11.1% (vs. -30%).

A breakdown of the positive samples show the high prevalence of the flu, followed by SARS-CoV-2 and RSV. The graph shows percentages of cumulated data, with the x axis showing the weeks starting on the 40th week of 2022 up to the 18th week of 2023.

OF THE 34 RESPIRATORY SPECIMENS (up FROM 18 A WEEK AGO) SENT IN BY DOCTORS, ONE (2.9%) WAS FOUND TO BE INFLUENZA OF SOME TYPE, 4 (11.8%) WERE SARS-COV-2, AND ZERO PATIENTS HAD RESPIRATORY SYNCYTIAL VIRUS (RSV).

This compares with 5.6%, 11.1% and 0% the week before, respectively.

On the 19th week, 120 people were hospitalised (134 on the preceding week) for severe acute respiratory infections, 16 of whom required intensive care (18 a week earlier). Of the 120 patients, 24.2% (29) were aged 2 years or younger (versus 20.1% or 27 a week ago) and 51.7% or 62 people were aged 60 years or older (versus 53.7% or 72 a week ago).

Of the patients requiring hospital care, zero was affected by influenza (also zero on the previous week), 33 or 27.5% by SARS-CoV-2 (down from 50 or 37.3% a week earlier) and 2 or 1.7% by respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) (vs. 5 or 3.7% a week earlier).

100% of RSV positive patients (2) were 2 years old or younger, while 84.8% (28) of people hospitalised with coronavirus infection were in the 60+ age group.

The age breakdown (see the four graphs below) shows that SARI affected primarily children, and to a smaller extent young adults since the 40th week of last year, while flu-like illnesses started to "pick on" children, adolescents and young adults from the fourth week of 2023 and it remained so up to about the 14th or 15th week.