Economy 5 May 2023, 4:40pm

Influenza epidemic not over but keeps winding down in Hungary

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The number of Hungarians seeking medical help with severe acute respiratory illnesses and influenza-like symptoms fell 7% and 30% week on week per 100,000 population on the seven days up to 4 May, according to the latest report of the National Centre for Public Health (NNK).

First, the key COVID-19 stats

Before going into flu data, let's take a look at the latest developments on the coronavirus front!

The key data for the last four weeks are in the table below. Frankly, it's makes no sense to talk at length about the spread of COVID-19 in Hungary at this point. As you can see, even an apparently alarming leap in the number of hospitalised and ventilated coronavirus patients does not mean a thing - only inaccurate data, a fluke. We have no data for the number of ventilated Covid patients which means there's none or that no data was published. Either way, there were 10 people in hospital needing mechanical ventilation the week before last, and with the number of hospitalised Covid patients down at 95 from 350 it is absolutely conceivable that none of them were in severe condition over the last seven days.

Welcoming the World Health Organization's announcement that COVID-19 no longer constitutes a global health emergency, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the following:

"Finally, after more than three years, COVID-19 is no longer a global health emergency. This is good news.

"This pandemic changed the face of the EU, which has become a true European Health Union. We are now far better prepared to face future health crises, with new tools to react quickly to emerging health crises. We have strengthened our health security framework and crisis preparedness mechanisms.

"We have established the Health Emergency and Response Authority (HERA) to be better prepared for future health emergencies. We have a stronger European Medicine Agency (EMA) and European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)."

Nevertheless, vigilance remains crucial. Although the pandemic has passed, it is clear that COVID-19 remains a global health threat and that it will be still part of our life for the foreseeable future.

"Together with the Member States, ECDC, EMA and HERA, we therefore need to continue our monitoring and surveillance, ensure vaccination of the vulnerable, so that we are always prepared for future health crises."

Is the flu epidemic over yet?

Pretty much, but not entirely. The NNK said that on the 17th week of the year, 138,200 people went to the doctor with symptoms of severe acute respiratory infections (down from 148,700 a week earlier), of whom 9,000 (6.5%) were diagnosed with influenza-like illness, in contrast with 12,900 (8.7%) a week earlier.

If it were not for the holiday season when people are less inclined to visit the GP's office and complain about "just a wee cough", we would not see that dip towards end-2022 in the lines below.

Here's another chart attesting the peak in the epidemic was left behind two months ago.

And let's stop here for a second. Last year, the number of people seeking medical help with flu-like symptoms peaked on the 12th week of the year, but this year's peak was 2.5 times higher and if we compare it to the 2021 peak (on the 8th week) we see a 12.5-fold growth per 100,000 inhabitants.

This obviously has to do with weather conditions and social distancing, but also with mandatory mask-wearing, which may be a good idea to make a habit during flu season. And it doesn't require a lot of effort, not to mention a change in regulations. It's just common sense.

The SARI figure per 100,000 population shows a 7.1% drop, versus no change (-0.3%) a week ago, and the number of flu-like symptoms has fallen by 30% (vs. nearly 16% a week ago)..

A breakdown of the positive samples show the high prevalence of the flu, followed by SARS-CoV-2 and RSV. The graph shows percentages of cumulated data, with the x axis showing the weeks starting on the 40th week of 2022 up to the 17th week of 2023.

OF THE 51 RESPIRATORY SPECIMENS (up slightly FROM 38 A WEEK AGO) SENT IN BY DOCTORS, 11 (21.6%) WERE FOUND TO BE INFLUENZA OF SOME TYPE, 8 (15.7%) WERE SARS-COV-2, AND zero PATIENTS HAD RESPIRATORY SYNCYTIAL VIRUS (RSV).

This compares with 39.5%, 5.3% and 2.6% the week before, respectively.

Last week, 153 people were hospitalised (140 on the preceding week) for severe acute respiratory infections, 18 of whom required intensive care (19 a week earlier). Of the 153 patients, 20.3% (31) were aged 2 years or younger (versus 22.1% or 31 a week ago) and 53.6% (82) were aged 60 years or older (versus 57.1% or 80 a week ago).

Of the patients requiring hospital care, 2 or 1.3% were affected by influenza (vs. 4 or 2.9% a week ago), 59 or 38.6% by SARS-CoV-2 (up from 43 or 30.7% a week ago) and 2 or 1.3% by respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) or respiratory giant cell infection (vs. 4 or 2.9% a week ago).

50% of RSV positive patients (1) were 2 years old or younger, while 84.7% (50) of people hospitalised with coronavirus infection were in the 60+ age group.

The age breakdown (see the four graphs below) shows that SARI affected primarily children, and to a smaller extent young adults since the 40th week of last year, while flu-like illnesses started to "pick on" children and young Hungarians from the fourth week of 2023.

As for people with SARI having a doctor checking their health status, the share of those up to 14 years of age picked up again after a drop a week ago, while the share of those in the other three age groups corrected downwardly.