Economy 21 April 2023, 10:55am

Flu epidemic still in retreat in Hungary, share of Covid patients in hospital rises

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The number of respiratory illnesses and of people seeking medical help with influenza-like symptoms dropped further in Hungary over the past seven days compared to the preceding week, the weekly report of the National Centre for Public Health (NNK) showed on Thursday. The decline gathered pace and there were 50% fewer visits relating to SARI and nearly 78% fewer complaints about the flu than six weeks ago, at the height of the epidemic. At the same time, the share of COVID-19 patients among those hospitalised with SARI jumped, and the share of coronavirus infection in samples tested also rose sharply.

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Coronavirus statistics show worsening, but...

Before going into flu data, let's take a look at the latest developments on the coronavirus front!

The key data for the last four weeks are in the table below. Frankly, it's makes no sense to talk at length about the spread of COVID-19 in Hungary at this point, and you should not be alarmed by the extreme rise in the number of hospitalised and ventilated coronavirus patients, either. This is just a single set of figures provided by an authority that has always been skimpy on Covid statistics, so we should not draw far-reaching conclusion yet.

The other indicator showing the severity of the pandemic waves is on the two charts below, one for a shorter period and the other for the entire duration of the pandemic up to 18 April 2023.

What about the flu epidemic?

The NNK said that on the 15th week of the year, 149,200 people went to the doctor with symptoms of severe acute respiratory infections (down from 154,600 a week earlier), of whom 15,300 (10.3%) were diagnosed with influenza-like illness, in contrast with 18,600 (12.0%) a week earlier.

If it were not for the holiday season when people are less inclined to visit the GP's office and complain about "just a wee cough", we would not see that dip towards end-2022 in the lines below.

Here's another chart attesting the peak in the epidemic was left behind 1.5 months ago.

The SARI figure shows a 3.5% drop (versus a much sharper 23% decline a week ago), and the number of flu-like symptoms has fallen by only about 18% (vs. nearly 38% a week ago), yet the winding down of the flu season cannot be called into question.

A breakdown of the positive samples show the high prevalence of the flu, followed by SARS-CoV-2 and RSV. The graph shows percentages of cumulated data, with the x axis showing the weeks starting on the 40th week of 2022 up to the 15th week of 2023.

OF THE 64 RESPIRATORY SPECIMENS (DOWN SHARPLY up from 37 A WEEK AGO) SENT IN BY DOCTORS, 19 (29.7%) WERE FOUND TO BE INFLUENZA OF SOME TYPE, 11 (17.2%) WERE SARS-COV-2, AND one (1.6%) PATIENTS HAD RESPIRATORY GIANT CELL VIRUS (RSV).

This compares with 37.8%, 5.4% and 5.4% the week before, respectively.

Last week, 184 people were hospitalised (166 on the preceding week) for severe acute respiratory infections, 27 of whom required intensive care (17 a week earlier). Of the 184 patients, 20.7% (38) were aged 2 years or younger (versus 25.3% or 42 a week ago) and 56.5% (104) were aged 60 years or older (up from 44.6% or 74 a week ago).

Of the patients requiring hospital care, 10 or 5.4% were affected by influenza (vs. 10 or 6.0% a week ago), 65 or 35.3% by SARS-CoV-2 (up markedly from 42 or 25.3% a week ago) and 4 or 2.2% by respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) or respiratory giant cell infection (vs. 5 or 3.0% a week ago).

75% of RSV positive patients (3) were 2 years old or younger, while 84.6% (55) of people hospitalised with coronavirus infection were in the 60+ age group. The former figure shows a jump from 40% last week and the latter was largely flat (vs 85.7%).

The age breakdown (see the four graphs below) shows that SARI affected primarily children, and to a smaller extent young adults since the 40th week of last year, while flu-like illnesses started to "pick on" children and young Hungarians from the fourth week of 2023.

Of course, the greater number of infections among children also has to do with the fact that concerned parents generally take their offspring to a paediatrician much more willingly and frequently than older people seek medical help, thinking they will just tough it out.

Of all the patients that went to the doctor with flu-like symptoms, 37.6% (5,753 vs. 7,607 a week ago) were children. 31.1% were aged 15-34 (4,578 vs 5,617), 22.9% (3,504 vs. 4,055) were in the 35-59 age group, and 8.4% (1,285 vs. 1,432) were over 60.

As for the age breakdown of people going to the doctor with SARI, 50% (74,600 vs. 79,774 week ago) were children, 24.1% were aged 15-34 (35,957 vs. 36,486), 16.5% (24,618 vs. 24,736) were in the 35-59 age group, and 9.4% (14,025 vs. 13,605) were over 60.