Economy 1 February 2023, 2:59pm

COVID-19: Key metrics show continued improvement in Hungary

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All key COVID-19 statistics show improvement in Hungary for the seven days ended on 31 January, which comes after even greater decreases in the key metrics a week earlier.

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Hungary has never been famous for the abundance, accuracy or transparency of its Covid statistics, and the situation was made worse (if that's even possible) when the official government site stopped publishing even the weekly set of data altogether as of 1 January 2023. The site itself is no longer available. It's but a fading (bad) memory by now.

We (i.e. the press) get access to Covid stats via state-run newswire MTI, but - to be honest - this does not make much of a difference either for journalists or for the public. No one really cares outside those that have relatives or friends in hospital with COVID-19 or who have passed away due to the virus.

The latest set of figures shows improvement on every front, but a single look at either the table below or the subsequent graphs will reveal how cautious we need to be when interpreting the weekly changes.

As regards the total number of Covid deaths, Hungary continues to beat everyone in the region. In terms of deaths per one million population Hungary is 3rd in the world, with 5,067 fatalities behind Bulgaria (5,578) and Peru (6,500).

The ratio of people in hospital and on ventilator rose to an alarming level three weeks ago (to nearly 12% from 5%), only to retreat abruptly to 2.3% by last Tuesday and drop further to 1.8% by 31 Jan.

The ratios showing deaths per hospitalised patients and deaths per ventilated patients oddly moved in opposite directions on the seven days to 24 Jan but levelled out over the past seven days.

Another key indicator of the progress of the pandemic has also start to rise after a brief retreat for a fortnight. The following chart uses an indicator conceived by Balázs Pártos, an enthusiast with a medical background who was keeping a very close eye on the pandemic and made rather accurate estimates based on the CFR/OCC ratio. CFR = [deaths / confirmed cases], OCC = [deaths / (deaths + recoveries)]. This may be one of the best (simple) indicators as to where the pandemic is headed.

Vaccination

With a daily average of 276 doses administered (down from 384 a week ago) it makes very little sense to even address COVID-19 shots. But here you go anyway. A total of 1,923 doses of COVID-19 vaccines were administered over the past seven days, down 28% w/w, which follows a 15% decline and a miraculous 404% leap two weeks before that.