Economy 28 September 2022, 10:02am

COVID-19: New cases down, hospitalisations up in Hungary

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Hungarian authorities diagnosed 11,392 people with SARS-CoV-2 infection over the past week, down 7% in weekly terms. 46 people died of coronavirus-related diseases, versus 48 a week earlier (-4%). There are 1,166 people with COVID-19 in hospital, a growth of 26% w/w, with 18 of them on ventilator, 29% more than a week ago.

The table below includes the number of new COVID-19 infections, coronavirus-related deaths, and the number of infected people in hospital and on ventilator for the week up to 27 September, as well as the week-on-week changes for the past four weeks. The closer the colour of the cell is to green the greater the w/w decline / smaller the w/w growth is (good), while the closer the colour of the cell is to red, the bigger the w/w growth / smaller the w/w drop is (bad).

As you can see, the number of new cases and fatalities dropped compared to last week, while there are more people with Covid in hospital and on ventilator.

In any case, here are a few charts about the key indicators:

When interpreting the data on the graphs note that the 16 August report contained apparently false data which did not fit into the trend at all.

Weekly changes in Hungary

It's worth putting the weekly changes side by side. Note that the reliability of the data is extremely low, but these are the figures we have to work with. Apart from the mid-August fluke the data are consistent.

On the left-hand graph you can see that there is a correlation between the number of new cases, hospital admissions, Covid patients on ventilator and coronavirus-related deaths. For instance, when the number of hospitalisations rose sharply (early July, late July) fatalities also showed an increase with a 7-day lag. The changes in hospitalisations and ventilation have been moving more or less in tandem.

The correlation between rising ventilation figures and deaths (r-h chart) is also apparent, and without the mid-Aug error in the reported figures the pattern of the curves should be more alike. Theoretically, we should see a drop / rise in the light blue curve followed by a similar change in the lilac curve (as in early July) all the way.

As of 28 November 2021, hospitals are required to report how many coronavirus patients they have on invasive and non-invasive ventilation. Since then, however, authorities have been reporting only the former data, which proved to be some 40% lower than before 28 Nov when hospitals were reporting either only invasive or both invasive and non-invasive ventilation figures. The intention of authorities was explicitly to provide clearer more detailed statistics, but they failed miserably and made ventilation stats only murkier.

By now this differentiation has become irrelevant, though. The 'On ventilator / In hospital' ratio has been steadily dropping since May, although there was a spike in late August. The ratio was 1.5% both this week and last. The last time the two figures matched on two consecutive weeks was in mid-June.

Vaccination uptake rises slightly, 4th doses particularly 'popular'

A total of 5,445 COVID-19 shots have been administered in Hungary over the past seven days, up from 3,418 a week earlier and 3,079 two weeks earlier.

The daily average jumped 59% to 778 doses per day.

On the graph below you can find a breakdown of the percentage of basic shots and boosters to the total number of doses administered per week. The number of 4th doses more than doubled in the last seven days (4,147 vs. 1,962 a week earlier), and there was an increase in the uptake of 3rd shots, as well. As a percentage of all doses administered, we see an increase only at 4th doses, though.

Here's a different breakdown of the various doses administered:

The number of Hungarians with SARS-CoV-2 infection in quarantine remained EXACTLY THE SAME at 1,834 (which follows a sharp drop last week and rises on two consecutive weeks before that). Not that this means anything amid the current Covid regulations, but interesting nonetheless...