Economy 21 September 2022, 9:55am

COVID-19: Hungary reports worsening statistics again

Portfolio

Hungarian authorities diagnosed 12,307 people with SARS-CoV-2 infection over the past week, when 48 people died of coronavirus-related diseases. There are 923 people with COVID-19 in hospital with 14 of them on ventilator. All figures show an increase over the past week. The spread of coronavirus appears to be accelerating, albeit not at a rapid pace. Also, the Omicron variant generally causes milder symptoms, and we still receive only a handful of data from authorities once a week. We have no idea, for instance, how many tests were performed, while the positivity rate could be a useful indicator indeed.

The table below includes the number of new COVID-19 infections, coronavirus-related deaths, and the number of infected people in hospital and on ventilator for the week up to 20 September, as well as the week-on-week changes for the past four weeks. (The green cells show the biggest w/w decline (good), while the red/yellow cells show the biggest w/w growth / smallest drop (bad) of the last four weeks.)

As you can see, all four figures show a week-on-week increase, which could be called a turnaround if not for the unreliable nature of the reported data. We might see a decline again next week, there's no way to tell.

In any case, here are a few charts about the key indicators:

When interpreting the data on the graphs note that the 16 August report contained apparently false data which did not fit into the trend at all.

Weekly changes in Hungary

It's worth putting the weekly changes side by side. Note that the reliability of the data is extremely low, but these are the figures we have to work with. Apart from the mid-August fluke the data are consistent.

On the left-hand graph you can see that there is a correlation between the number of new cases, hospital admissions, Covid patients on ventilator and coronavirus-related deaths. For instance, when the number of hospitalisations rose sharply (early July, late July) fatalities also showed an increase with a 7-day lag. The changes in hospitalisations and ventilation have been moving more or less in tandem.

The correlation between rising ventilation figures and deaths (r-h chart) is also apparent, and without the mid-Aug error in the reported figures the pattern of the curves should be more alike. Theoretically, we should see a drop / rise in the light blue curve followed by a similar change in the lilac curve (as in early July) all the way.

Read more about the Omicron variant by clicking on the links below (top link contains results of the latest studies).

As of 28 November 2021, hospitals are required to report how many coronavirus patients they have on invasive and non-invasive ventilation. Since then, however, authorities have been reporting only the former data, which proved to be some 40% lower than before 28 Nov when hospitals were reporting either only invasive or both invasive and non-invasive ventilation figures. The intention of authorities was explicitly to provide clearer more detailed statistics, but they failed miserably and made ventilation stats only murkier.

By now this differentiation has become irrelevant, though. The 'On ventilator / In hospital' ratio has been steadily dropping since May, although there was a spike in late August.

Vaccination uptake rises slightly

A total of 3,418 COVID-19 shots have been administered in Hungary over the past seven days, up from 3,079 a week earlier but down from 4,168 two weeks earlier.

The daily average rose 11% to 488 doses per day.

Here's a breakdown of the various doses administered:

The number of Hungarians with SARS-CoV-2 infection in quarantine dropped sharply to 1,834 from 3,167 in a week (which follows increases on two consecutive weeks). Not that this means anything amid the current Covid regulations...