COVID-19: Hungary records nearly 20,000 new cases again

Hungarian authorities diagnosed 19,690 people with COVID-19 infection, and 77 people died of coronavirus-related diseases over the past 24 hours (Tuesday). The second-highest daily figure of new cases since the outbreak comes after a lot fewer cases (9,422), just like in the previous weeks, and should be followed by at least 15,000 new cases in the following days.

Highlights of of today's data release:

• new cases +52% d/d, -2.4% w/w;
• 7-day average of new cases 0% d/d, +10% w/w;
• Covid patients in hospital +123 (+3.7%) d/d, +1,196 (+38%) w/w;
• Covid patients on ventilator -3.7% d/d, -0.6% w/w;
• Covid deaths +11 (+14.3%) d/d, +8 (+11.6%) w/w;
• Positivity rates relentlessly going up.

The key indicators on the graph below are the 7-d / 28-day average and its 7-day average, for two periods: starting from 1 October 2021 and starting from 1 September 2020. Both are back at their early January / mid-November level.

The 7-day moving average of new daily COVID-19 cases has been going up sharply but the tiny downturn on top may be the light at the end of the tunnel. There are zigzags in the 7-day average of Covid deaths, but other data suggest we might just dodge the bullet, and the curve will not rise as steeply as the green one on the left.

The chart below shows the data depicted on the two above, so it's a kind of 4 in 1 chart. When comparing the number of Covid cases and coronavirus-related deaths, one might say: so far, so good. In other words, there are way more cases than a year ago, yet these apparently claim fewer lives. (More about this later.) According to various studies, this has to do with immunity gained by vaccination, which means those unvaccinated (some 3.4 million people in Hungary) can still get extremely easily infected, have severe symptoms and die. And the chances of all these happening to them is far greater than for those that have received COVID-19 shots, preferably three doses.

The rise in the number of hospitalisations bode ill for the future, while the number of Covid patients on ventilator warrant optimism.

On the two charts below the 0% line is important. When the curves are under 0% there’s a decline, when they go over 0% it’s an increase.

More importantly, when a value is north of 0% but the curve descends, it means an increase at a slowing rate, rather than a decrease. If the curve is above 0% and ascending, it is an increase at an accelerating rate. When we are under 0% and the curve goes lower, it translates into an accelerating decrease, and when it goes up it marks a decelerating decrease.

The left-hand chart shows what happened a year ago. The time series spans between 1 Nov 2020 and 28 Feb 2021, and the same dates in 2021 and 2022 are indicated by the red ovals. The black oval shows when the turnaround this year occurred.

What the curves tell is is that (based on 7-day averages), the decline in the number of active cases continues at a diminishing rate, while the number of hospitalisations is rising at an accelerating rate, and the number of Covid patients on ventilator has been improving to an ever smaller extent, so much that the improvement has just halted.

Looking at accumulated data since 28 August, we find that

• There are way more cases than a year ago (771,000 vs. 364,000, i.e. more than double, +112%);
• The number of days Covid patients spend in hospital is way less (491,000 vs. 634,000, -23%);
• The number of days spent in ICUs is slightly higher (54,000 vs. 49,000, +10%);

• The number of Covid deaths is slightly lower (11,500 vs. 12,000, -4.6%).

As regards the various ratios of the accumulated figures we find that

• Covid deaths / Days spent in hospital has been higher than a year ago since early November (currently 2.34% vs. 1.89%)
• Covid deaths / Days in ICUs is lower than a year ago (the ratio was higher between end-Nov and mid-Dec, but it has been lower since and is currently 21.2% vs. 24.4%)

• Hospital days / Accumulated cases is way below the base period’s reading (64% vs. 175%)
• ICU days / Accumulated cases is about half of what we saw a year ago (7% vs. 13.6%)

• As regards the number of ventilated patients per those in hospital, the 7-day average has been dropping since end-December (13.5%) and is currently as low as 5.7%.

Cover photo: Getty Images