Economy 28 December 2021, 1:03pm

COVID-19: Testing, vaccination fallen to pieces in Hungary

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Hungarian authorities performed 4,556 COVID-19 tests over the past 24 hours, hence it is no wonder they diagnosed only 1,370 people with SARS-CoV-2 infection, down 31% week on week. 151 people have died of coronavirus-related infection on Monday, according to the official government portal koronavirus.gov.hu. While the cabinet relies almost solely on vaccination, only about 7,000 shots were administered on average over the past five days. Only about one third of the population are protected by three doses, while the highly contagious Omicron variant is becoming the dominant strain globally. Officially, some 100 people have been infected by Omicron in Hungary but given that Omicron cases double every two or three days, it is a ridiculously low number. Unless we take into consideration the testing practices. In that case, it makes sense.

The number of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases is irrelevant, as authorities have performed merely 4,556 tests yesterday, which resulted in a jump to the percent positive to over 30% from around 16% last Wednesday (Thursday morning report, before the long Christmas weekend). Here are a couple of graphs showing the changes in the key positivity rates, though.

And now let's take a look at the 'highly successful' vaccination strategy of the cabinet:

about one third of the population have received three doses of COVID-19 vaccines so far;
about 3.5 million people have not received a single dose of any COVID-19 vaccine;
the effectiveness of vaccines wanes over time, which means millions of Hungarians have diminished or no protection against coronavirus infection, even after two jabs;
the highly contagious Omicron variant is going to become the dominant strain, possibly within weeks, as Omicron cases double every two or three days. Even if this strain does not cause more severe disease than the Delta variant, its extremely rapid spread could strain the health care system to its limit in a very short time;
the Hungarian government is currently not considering lockdown measures, even though several countries in Western Europe have already introduced new restrictions.

The official government portal did not publish vaccination data on Monday after a four-day Christmas break, but now we can see what changed on the vaccination front over the past five days. In sum: not much.

A total of 35,133 shots were administered, which corresponds to slightly more than 7,000 per day on average. Here's a breakdown per doses:

6,880 first doses (1,376 per day on average)
10,783 second doses (2,157 on average)
17,470 third doses (3,494 on average)

The Hungarian government was the first in Europe to make third doses available for the public (on 2 August), and it was quick to approve COVID-19 shots first to the 12-17 age group and then to children aged 5 to 11. The parents' enthusiasm to get their offspring immunised against SARS-CoV-2 is far from amazing. Slighly more than 50% of adolescents aged 12 to 17 have been vaccinated, and less than 6% of children aged 5 to 11 have received their first shot so far.

Also, 16,544 Hungarians were let out of mandatory quarantine (15,775 on 27 Dec. vs. 32,319 on 22 Dec.). In other words, 13.51% of active cases are in quarantine (and then there are those that are in hospital, currently 4,019, which translates into 17% being in quarantine and in hospital). What is unique in this year's quarantining approach is that for some reason the lifting on quarantines always coincided with weekends. That's a strange 'healing process' to say the least.

There are officially some 100 Omicron cases in the country. In reality, there are a lot more.

Over the past five days, 587 Hungarians have died of coronavirus-related diseases, which translates to 117 per day on average. The number of Covid deaths since 1 August (8,867) is 3.55% higher than in the same period of 2020 (8,563).

The situation in hospitals

The following charts show changes in two of the key metrics in the pandemic, the number of Covid patients in hospital and on ventilator as well as their relevant ratios.

On the charts below the 0% line is important. When the curves are under 0% there’s a decline, when they go over 0% it’s an increase. The changes show that the situation in terms of hospitalisations started to worsen after 20 August.

More importantly, when a value is north of 0% but the curve descends, it means an increase at a slowing rate, rather than a decrease. If the curve is above 0% and ascending, it is an increase at an accelerating rate. When we are under 0% and the curve goes lower, it translates into an accelerating decrease, and when it goes up it marks a decelerating decrease. These charts also give reason for optimism. Now only two curves under the 0% mark are descending, the decrease in the number of active cases slowed down.

The ratio of Covid patients on ventilator to those hospitalised has been rising, as the latter number has been dropping at a greater rate than the former. According to today's report, the number of hospitalised Covid patients was down only 1% between Monday and Sunday and by 27.3% compared to a week earlier, while the respective changes in the number of ventilated patients were 9.4% and 25.4%. (The charts below show 3-day averages and thus the impact of the long weekend is evident in the curves.)