Economy 8 December 2021, 12:05pm

Hungary reports 213 COVID-19 deaths for Tuesday

Portfolio

Hungarian authorities diagnosed 6,849 people with COVID-19 infection and 213 died of coronavirus-related diseases over the last 24 hours, koronavirus.gov.hu reported on Wednesday. The number of Covid patients in hospital dropped by 362 (-5.0%) d/d to 7,206, and the number of Covid patients on ventilator fell by 1.8%. The 7-day average of new cases is down 21.5% week-on-week, but we are yet to see a more convincing decline in the number of hospitalisations and those ventilated, as their respective 7-day averages are still up 2.3% and 18.5%. The accumulated number of coronavirus-related deaths since 1 August is 9% higher than in the same period a year ago.

(Please note that the calculation of the 7-day average of the 3-day / 21-day average positivity rate has been tweaked for increased accuracy. As a result, the 101.76% value comes after 103.52% rather than 105.77% as reported yesterday.)

The number of active cases declined by more than 2,500 d/d on Monday and by over 2,900 on Tuesday, which are shockingly large numbers, considering that the only day this figure dropped was 1 December, and the decline was merely 61 people. The day before that when the number of active cases decreased was on 28 September (-184).

And not only that, but the number of recoveries is also up suspiciously sharply. The two pairs of charts show the daily changes (top two) and the 7-day averages (bottom two) of these daily changes. We do not mean to read anything to these figures just yet (two days' worth of data are not enough), but a similar pattern occurred in August when authorities were catching up with paperwork and there were suddenly a host of recoveries and a subsequent sharp decline in active cases.

Such an abrupt and drastic improvement cannot be explained with any public data currently at our disposal.

The fact that all percent positive readings are higher than a year ago also bodes ill for the future. As you can see on the charts below, the 3-day / 21-day test positivity rate dipped to under 100% nine times, always on these three 'weekend' days. After coming down as low as 87.7% on Monday from 113% last Thursday, it ticked back up to over 100% and it is currently at 122.95%.

If we want to be certain that the key epidemiological figures are starting to improve, the 7-day average of the 3-d/21-d positivity rate would need to go south of the 100% mark.

It is currently at 101.76% and it has been dropping since 1 December (106.3%), while it was as high as 160% in late October.

The abatement of the current 'wave' will first be indicated by the percent positive peaking and retreating. It will be followed by a drop in daily new COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations, the number of ventilated patients, and eventually coronavirus-related deaths.

Changes in the positivity rate are reflected in the other epidemiological data with a delay:

new cases – 3 to 5 days
hospitalisations – 7 to 10 days
patients on ventilator – 12 to 15 days
deaths – 18 to 22 days.

Whereas the decline in the 7-day average of new cases is a welcome change and might just indicate that the peak in the current 'wave' has been reached, there's no reason to pop the cork just yet. The other metrics will keep going up for days or even weeks after the percent positive reached its plateau.

The 224 fatalities reported by the Coronavirus Task Force for Monday marks a new record in the current 'wave'. Daily deaths were last higher (241) on 15 April this year. For Tuesday, authorities reported 213 coronavirus-related deaths.

The tables below show how the changes in the number of daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations and the number of ventilated Covid patients in 2021 and 2020. From the comparison of daily figures we have switched to lining up 7-day averages. This is to avoid distortions caused by comparing weekdays with weekend days when authorities do not publish statistics, and the aggregate data released on Mondays have to be distributed for three days with a certain methodology.

In the top chart we compared the figures of 7 December to one, two, three, and four weeks earlier. The second chart shows the week-on-week changes.

The number of new cases does show an improvement, and the 7-day average is already 21.5% lower than a week ago and 20.4% lower than a fortnight ago. The other two key metrics, i.e. the number of Covid patients in hospital and on ventilator still worsened more than a year ago, and show an increase of 2.3% and 18.5% w/w, respectively. The figures give reason for cautious optimism that the current 'wave' might have peaked. There are estimates, though, that the percent positive could still spike, entailing the worsening of the other key metrics and pushing off the plateau by at least several days or even more.

Note that the ventilation data are adjusted by Portfolio's methodology, i.e. the official daily figures have been adjusted 40% higher since 28 Nov, not just for the sake of comparability but also to reflect reality more accurately.

How is the situation in hospitals?

The number of Covid patients admitted to hospitals and needing mechanical ventilation has been on the rise for a while now, and they are already at mid-April levels. Note that the number of Covid patients in hospitals and on ventilators have dropped, but we would not read too much into a single day's data.

On the charts below the 0% line is important. When the curves are under 0% there’s a decline, when they go over 0% it’s an increase. The changes show that the situation in terms of hospitalisations started to worsen after 20 August.

More importantly, when a value is north of 0% but the curve descends, it means an increase at a slowing rate, rather than a decrease. If the curve is above 0% and ascending, it is an increase at an accelerating rate. When we are under 0% and the curve goes lower, it translates into an accelerating decrease, and when it goes up it marks a decelerating decrease. These charts also give reason for cautious optimism.

The number of Covid patients in hospital and of those on ventilator grow almost fully synchronously, apart from a period between mid-September and end-October. In that period there was not enough room for Covid patients and that is why there were many on ventilator relative to the number of Covid patients hospitalised. Then Covid capacities were added to the system and the 'link' was back the way it was before.

The same can be observed at the charts below, only with ratios. The share of those in hospital to the number of active cases has come down from its peak because daily testing picked up, and while there are more and more people with coronavirus infection in hospital, the number of active cases has been growing at a higher rate. And the ventilated / in hospital ratio dropped and steadied due to the aforementioned reason, but it has been rising again over the last few days. Given the changes implemented by the Coronavirus Task Force (see above), this ratio is now only an estimate, the best we can come up with.

Lacklustre progress with vaccinations

The Hungarian government is organising vaccination campaigns in each settlement, and expects the administration of the third doses of COVID-19 vaccines to skyrocket, said Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in his regular interview with public radio MR1 last Friday.

If you take a closer look at the current vaccination campaign (announced for Nov 22-28 with a 2.5-week preparation time and then extended by another week and then by another one to 12 Dec) where no prior registration is required to get your first, second or third dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, it will be clear that 3rd doses remain vastly more in demand than 1st or 2nd jabs.

It is now evident that it was actually not the “hassle” of prior online registration and appointment booking that prevented around three million Hungarians from getting inoculated against coronavirus. It’s their determination not to get vaccinated or merely a lack of Internet access that prevented them from signing up. And it’s not even a hassle, but a simple procedure that takes a couple of minutes if you have a social security number, Internet access and a minimal level of digital literacy.