Economy 5 November 2021, 6:45pm

COVID-19: 83 deaths, over 6,800 new cases over the past 24 hours in Hungary

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Hungarian authorities diagnosed 6,804 people with COVID-19, the highest daily figure since early April, and 83 people died of coronavirus-related diseases over the past 24 hours. The number of new cases jumped 61% week-on-week, and there are currently 70% more people with SARS-CoV-2 in hospital and 59% more on ventilator than a week ago. 3,629 people with coronavirus infection are in hospital, with 366 of them on ventilator, which compares with 5,183 people in hospital and 378 on ventilator a year ago.

The reproduction rate of the virus, which shows how many people a single infected person infects, rose from 1.2 to between 1.4 and 1.5, and further to 1.74 by 2 Nov, which is higher than it was in the upwards phase of the second and third waves. Although we have seen reproduction rates this high earlier, those were for short periods and at much lower case numbers. This time, however, the fast growth began from a high base.

Hungary holds the world record with this reproduction rate currently.

SNAPSHOT --- 4 November 2021 vs. 4 November 2020:

new cases--- 6,804 vs. 3,928 (+73%)
active cases--- 56,260 vs. 69,946 (-20%)
in hospital--- 3,629 vs. 5,183 (-30%)
on ventilator--- 366 vs. 378 (-3.2%)
test positivity rate--- 20.82% vs. 18.18%
3-day average percent positive--- 23.37% vs. 20.08%
7-day average percent positive--- 17.93% vs. 23.36%
21-day average percent positive--- 14.62% vs. 15.46%
7-day average of 3-day / 21-day average positivity rate--- 137.25% vs. 132.76%
accumulated cases (1 Aug – 4 Nov) --- 82,557 vs. 90,390 (-8.7%)
accumulated deaths (1 Aug – 4 Nov) --- 1,157 vs. 1,549 (-25.3%)

Last Thursday, the government finally came to its senses and decided to tighten restrictions to some extent. As of 1 November (why they had to wait three days to implement these measures is a mystery), mask-wearing is compulsory in public transport, visiting in health care institutions is banned, and companies are now allowed to require their employees to be vaccinated against coronavirus. State institutions are no exception.

A one-week vaccination campaign that does not require prior registration was also announced yesterday, but it will start only on 22 November, while experts have been urging anti-pandemic measures for a while now.

Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said on Friday the government will need to respond if the spread of coronavirus accelerates further, but he did not specify either milestones or possible counter measures.

The number of Covid patients admitted to hospitals and needing mechanical ventilation has been on the rise for a while now, and their are already at mid-May levels.

On charts below the 0% line is important. When the curves are under 0% there’s a decline, when they go over 0% it’s an increase. The changes show that the situation in terms of hospitalisations started to worsen after 20 August.

More importantly, when a value is north of 0% but the curve descends, it means an increase at a slowing rate, rather than a decrease. If the curve is above 0% and ascending, it is an increase at an accelerating rate. When we are under 0% and the curve goes lower, it translates into an accelerating decrease, and when it goes up it marks a decelerating decrease.

A couple of graphs about the positivity rate. Not reassuring, either of them, weather they show a longer term or more recent developments.

When the Case Fatality Rate (CFR, shown on a reversed scale below) drops the pandemic starts to gather momentum, because CFR = deaths / registered cases. There is an increasing number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases but the number of Covid fatalities is just starting to catch up. Whatever looks like a drop on the chart, is actually an increase in reality. On this chart the CFR is shown in parallel with the number of new daily confirmed cases, as well as their 3-day and 7-day averages.

CFR is the number of Covid fatalities divided by the number of confirmed cases. If you perform very few tests as Hungary does, you'll have massive underdetection. The number of deaths rise but the number of confirmed cases remains relatively low, hence the high CFR.

As regards the left-hand chart below, the number of new COVID-19 cases accumulated since 28 August is only 10% lower than in the same period of 2020, while it was 32% lower only two weeks ago and 48% lower six weeks ago. In the meantime, the accumulated time Covid patients spend in hospital is 35% shorter than a year ago, while it was 13% lower four weeks ago and 18% higher eight weeks ago. (The turnaround came about on 22 September, about a month after the no-restrictions four-day celebrations of the foundation of the state on 20 August.)

On the right-hand chart see that two months ago the number of accumulated days spent in ICUs (practically on ventilator) was more than double of the base period's print, while the difference has narrowed to 1.7% by now despite the lower number of cases (accumulated) and fewer days (accumulated) coronavirus patients spend in hospital. This means that there should be a lot more cases to match the severity of this wave as demonstrated by the number of days spent on ventilator.

In terms of the accumulated number of Covid-related fatalities we are not where we were a year ago (accumulation is 26.5% lower vs. 81% higher 8 weeks ago), but same time last year there were no vaccines and cross-immunity (if it works at all) was assumably not as strong as currently. The right-hand chart also depicts that those that admitted to hospital with coronavirus infection are generally in worse condition than Covid patients a year ago.

The number of Covid patients hospitalised is about 35% of the corresponding figure on the same day in 2020, while the number of those in ICUs practically match the base period’s data.

There is no progress in the vaccination campaign. People that have been fully vaccinated in the basic protocol seek third doses, but even that growth rate needs to be higher, while those that have refused to get their shots are not changing their minds en masse despite the worsening epidemiological situation. And there's also the issue of the waning effectiveness of vaccines to consider...