Economy 5 October 2021, 4:34pm

COVID-19: Nearly as many patients in hospital as a year ago, but in worse condition

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Nearly as many COVID-19 patients are in hospital as a year ago, but a much higher ratio of those admitted are in serious condition currently than in early October 2020. Whereas the 7-day rolling average of new coronavirus infections is almost half as a year ago, the gap between the 7-day averages of Covid deaths has narrowed further. The 3-day average test positivity rate remains north of 4.5%, close to the 5.0%, set by the World Health Organisation as the threshold the percent positive should not exceed.

The ascending trend in the number of new COVID-19 cases (not the key metric in the current wave) is best reflected by the 7-day and 14-day rolling averages but the daily figures (green columns) do not leave any doubt about the worsening of the pandemic, either.

The same goes for the trend in COVID-19 deaths.

Some comparisons are due so that we can see the big picture better in the current 'wave'.

The three charts below how the past two months (August and September) compare with the same periods in 2020 in terms of new COVID-19 cases and their aggregate number, separately and between 1 Aug and 4 October (r-h chart). There was a clear change in the trend in September (the turnaround came about on 28 August) when the number of new confirmed daily COVID-19 cases was a lot higher in 2020 than this year, unlike in August. Consequently, the curves showing the accumulation of daily figures also swapped places. The total number of new cases between 1 August and 4 October 2020 was almost 27,000, against about 15,600 in the same two-month period this year.

The key metric, however, is not the number of new cases. What matters more is the number of people with SARS-CoV-2 in hospital and on ventilator, and eventually the number of coronavirus-related deaths.

There were 649 people with COVID-19 in hospital a year ago which compares with 585 currently (-10%), while 115% more of them need mechanical ventilation now than a year ago (86 vs. 40). The 3-day average ratio of COVID-19 patients on ventilator to those in hospital is also much worse at 15.26% versus 6.13% a year ago.

Even though vaccines were not in use a year ago and we have them now, the situation in terms of hospitalisation and ventilation should not be half as bad as it was last year. We can also hope that some cross-immunity exists to some degree at least, but with the new Delta variant and with this many people in hospital it might be a pipe dream.

The most likely explanation is that unvaccinated people make up the majority of severe cases, but authorities do not disclose the number or percentage of vaccinated and unvaccinated people among the infected / hospitalised / ventilated people.

The following charts (especially those on the right) do not bode well for the future. The health care system may be put to the test within a few weeks.

Whereas the daily mortality figures may suggest otherwise, the cumulated data show that we're not really better off than a year ago when there were no vaccines available. August was clearly worse this year than in 2020 in terms of total Covid deaths. September started off worse and showed improvement by the end of the month, but the balance of August and September shows that the situation in terms of Covid fatalities is about 10% better than it was a year ago (235 deaths between 1 Aug and 4 Oct 2020 vs. 219 in 2021).

The 3-day average test positivity rate dropped slightly to 4.54% from 4.62%. Authorities tested about 8,100 samples. A year ago, largely the same number of tests (7,724) yielded a 3-day percent positive of 9.27%.

The problem is that while the positivity rate is about half (3-day avg) of the respective figures a year ago, about the same number of people die of coronavirus-related diseases. Let's hope that the negative tests are linked to people that get tested voluntarily for work or for travel. If this is not the case, we have a huge problem.

The 3-day/21-day ratio of test positivity fell to 128% from 132%, while the 7-day average of the 3d/21d ratio is over 126%.

Meanwhile, measures aimed at mitigating the spread of coronavirus are still not in place. It is basically up to people if they want to lower risks of transmitting the virus by social distancing, mask-wearing, etc. Whereas the number of cases has clearly been on the rise - although this is by far not the most important metric right now, as we mentioned above - authorities have not tightened restrictions.

The government is focusing almost exclusively on vaccinations, relying solely on jabs as 'The Solution'. It lifted various lockdown measures in mid-May and then further eased restrictions in late June. Despite a rising number of new COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations and deaths, it has no intention to tighten anti-pandemic regulations. Note that Hungary scores 27.78 on the Stringency Index ( a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100, with 100 being the strictest), versus 40.74 a year ago.

The 7-day average of Covid patients on ventilator per the number of them in hospital edged higher to 15.5%. The 7-day average ratio of hospitalised patients to active cases rose further to 7.1%. These compare with 13.3% and 5.7% a week ago, and 11.7% and 3.1% four weeks ago, respectively.

The four charts below show the absolute number of COVID-19 patients in hospitals and on ventilators (top two) as well as two ratios (COVID-19 cases in hospital / Active cases, and COVID-19 cases on ventilator / Cases in hospital, bottom two.) The left-hand charts depict a longer period (15 June - 4 Oct), while the right-hand ones show changes over a shorter period (25 July - 4 Oct). The ascending trend is clear as regards the number of people in hospital and on ventilator.