Economy 30 September 2021, 4:56pm

COVID-19: 633 new cases, 5 deaths in Hungary

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Hungarian authorities diagnosed 633 people with COVID-19 and 5 people died of coronavirus-related diseases over the past 24 hours, koronavirus.gov.hu reported on Thursday. As of yesterday, 539 people with coronavirus infection were in hospital, with 87 of them on ventilator. Both numbers show an increase, 31% and 81% from a week ago.

The three charts below how the past two months (August and September) compare with the same periods in 2020 in terms of new COVID-19 cases and their accumulation, separately and between 1 Aug and 28 Sept. There was a clear change in the trend in September (the turnaround came about on 28 August) when the number of new confirmed daily COVID-19 cases was a lot higher in 2020 than this year, unlike in August. Consequently, the curves showing the accumulation of daily figures also swapped places.

The new cases in August and September 2020 totalled neary 22,000, against slightly more than 13,000 in the same two-month period this year (-70%), yet the 773 people with COVID-19 in hospital a year ago compares with 539 currently (-44%), and 62% more of them need mechanical ventilation now than a year ago. The ratio of COVID-19 patients on ventilator to those in hospital is also much worse at 15.3% versus 6.7% a year ago.

Even though vaccines were not in use a year ago and we have them now, the situation in terms of hospitalisation and ventilation should not be half as bad as it was last year. We can also hope that some cross-immunity exists to some degree at least, but with the new Delta variant and with this many people in hospital it might be a pipe dream.

The most likely explanation is that unvaccinated people make up the majority of severe cases, but authorities do not disclose the number or percentage of vaccinated and unvaccinated people among the infected / hospitalised / ventilated people.

As you can see, the hospitalisation situation is not as bad as in the same period last year, but (i) all numbers have been constantly rising, and we could find ourself in a position just as bad as a year ago in the following weeks, and (ii) coronavirus patients admitted to hospitals are apparently (a) in worse condition than a year ago or (b) the ventilation protocol has changed and they are hooked up to machines sooner. Either way, the number of patients on ventilator was higher in annual terms throughout this wave and the outlook is not good, either.

Whereas the 7-day rolling average of new cases is about half of what we saw a year ago, the 7-day rolling average of Covid deaths is also lower but not as significantly.

Over the past 31 days, 1.3% of people diagnosed with COVID-19 have died, which compares with 0.7% a year ago when the ratio worsened later on, and we don't see a reason why it would not happen again this time.

Whereas the daily mortality figures may suggest otherwise, the cumulated data show that we're not better off than a year ago when there were no vaccines available. August was clearly worse this year than in 2020 in terms of total Covid deaths. September started off worse and showed improvement by the end of the month, but the balance of August and September shows that the situation in terms of Covid fatalities is actually the same as it was a year ago (167 deaths in Aug-Sept 2020 vs. 163 in 2021).

Meanwhile, measures aimed at mitigating the spread of coronavirus are still not in place. It is basically up to people if they want to lower risks of transmitting the virus by social distancing, mask-wearing, etc. Whereas the number of cases has clearly been on the rise - although this is by far not the most important metric right now, as we mentioned above - authorities have not tightened restrictions.

The government is focusing almost exclusively on vaccinations, relying solely on jabs as 'The Solution'. It lifted various lockdown measures in mid-May and then further eased restrictions in late June. Despite a rising number of new COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations and deaths, it has no intention to tighten anti-pandemic regulations. Note that Hungary scores 27.78 on the Stringency Index ( a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100, with 100 being the strictest), versus 40.74 a year ago.

Gergely Röst, Head of COVID-19 Epidemiological Analysis and Modelling Response Team, warned in a recent presentation (and shared his views with the government, as well) that vaccines must not be regarded as panacea, and they would not solve the problem of the pandemic overnight. The other, non-pharmaceutical forms of protection must not be given up. A comprehensive programme of defense needs to be applied, as the various measures are mutually reinforcing, he said.

The 7-day average of Covid patients on ventilator per the number of them in hospital jumped to 14.5%. The 7-day average ratio of hospitalised patients to active cases rose further to 6.3%. These were 11.6% and 5.1% a week ago, respectively.

The four charts below show the absolute number of COVID-19 patients in hospitals and on ventilators (top two) as well as two ratios (COVID-19 cases in hospital / Active cases, and COVID-19 cases on ventilator / Cases in hospital, bottom two.) The left-hand charts depict a longer period (15 June - 29 Sept), while the right-hand ones show changes over a shorter period (25 July - 29 Sept). The ascending trend is clear as regards the number of people in hospital and on ventilator.