COVID-19: August-September death toll as high as in 2020
The three charts below how the past two months (August and September) compare with the same periods in 2020 in terms of new COVID-19 cases and their accumulation, separately and between 1 Aug and 28 Sept. There was a clear change in the trend in September (the turnaround came about on 28 August) when the number of new confirmed daily COVID-19 cases was a lot higher in 2020 than this year, unlike in August. Consequently, the curves showing the accumulation of daily figures also swapped places.
A year ago, the 7-day rolling average number of new daily COVID-19 tests performed was around 10,500 versus 12,000 currently, so there is not a huge difference, but more positive cases were found in 2020 (702 vs. 546 currently), and the positivity rate was consequently a lot higher (12% vs. 4.2%) and the 3-day average positivity rate was also more than double the current one (8.5% vs. 4.0%).
The problem is that while the positivity rate is one third (daily) or half (3-day avg) of the respective figures a year ago, about the same number of people die of coronavirus-related diseases. Let's hope that the negative tests are linked to people that get tested voluntarily for work or for travel. If this is not the case, we have a huge problem.
The 3-day/21-day ratio of test positivity jumped to 131%, while the 7-day average of the 3d/21d ratio is over 123%.
The 7-day rolling average of new cases shows a more benign situation than a year ago, but the ascending trend is clear and that's about the only positive feature of the current 'wave'.
There's no reason, though, to be grateful about the Covid fatality situation. The daily figures may suggest otherwise, but the cumulated data show that we're not better off than a year ago. August was clearly worse this year than in 2020 in terms of total Covid deaths. September started off worse and showed improvement by the end of the month, but the balance of August and September shows that the situation in terms of Covid fatalities is actually the same as it was a year ago.
Over the past 31 days, 1.3% of new cases died, which compares with 0.7% a year ago when the ratio worsened later on, and we don't see a reason why it would not happen again this time.
We can look at the number of daily Covid deaths or their 7-day averages, but a comparison with last year tells us more about the current situation. And the situation is that fewer people are in hospital, but they are in more severe / critical condition than a year ago. The number of ventilated Covid patients and their ratio to those in hospital also underpin this assumption. In general, those that are admitted to hospital with coronavirus infection have twice as big a chance of ending up on a ventilator than last year. It's either that they are in a more serious condition, or the protocol has changed and for preventive reasons they do not wait as long as last year before hooking up someone to a ventilator.
Even though vaccines were not in use a year ago and we have them now, the situation in terms of hospitalisation and ventilation should not be half as bad as it was last year. We can also hope that some cross-immunity exists to some degree at least, but with the new Delta variant and with this many people in hospital it might be a pipe dream.
The most likely explanation is that unvaccinated people make up the majority of severe cases, but authorities do not disclose the number or percentage of vaccinated and unvaccinated people among the infected / hospitalised / ventilated people.
Given that the cabinet relies almost exclusively on vaccines and has virtually no restriction in place that would mitigate Covid risks and help stem the spread of the more contagious Delta variant, it is incomprehensible why these numbers are not released. Provided they would prove that vaccines work and if you don't get inoculated against coronavirus, your chances are much higher of getting infected, having severe symptoms, needing hospitalisation and possibly ending up on tubes and then in the morgue.
Meanwhile, measures aimed at mitigating the spread of coronavirus are still not in place (see more about the quarantine protocol below). It is basically up to people if they want to mitigate risks of transmitting the virus by social distancing, mask-wearing, etc. Whereas the number of cases has clearly been on the rise - although this is by far not the most important metric right now, as we mentioned above - authorities have not tightened restrictions.
The 7-day average of Covid patients on ventilator per the number of them in hospital jumped to 14.2%. The 7-day average ratio of hospitalised patients to active cases rose further to 6.1%.
The four charts below show the absolute number of COVID-19 patients in hospitals and on ventilators (top two) as well as two ratios (COVID-19 cases in hospital / Active cases, and COVID-19 cases on ventilator / Cases in hospital, bottom two.) The left-hand charts depict a longer period (15 June - 28 Sept), while the right-hand ones show changes over a shorter period (25 July - 28 Sept). The ascending trend is clear as regards the number of people in hospital and on ventilator.
The quarantine protocol is also...interesting. It may be the very direction of the In quarantine / Active cases curves on these two charts that stands out right away, but note the differences on the left-hand scales. A year ago, over 120% of active cases were in quarantine, yes more people were in mandatory quarantine than those in active status, while this time the ratio does not reach even 70%.
If you look at a shorter period (the past 31 days) you'll find oddly parallel waves. The blue curve shows the aforementioned percentage, while the green peaks and ridges show how the number of those in quarantine changed. Also note that a year ago 20,000 active cases went in parallel with 24,000 people in quarantine, while this year there are some 7,400 active cases and only 5,000 people in quarantine.
Vaccinations continue, with 3rd doses (available since 2 August) being much more 'popular' than 1st and 2nd doses combined.
