Economy 25 August 2021, 3:17pm

COVID-19: Number of new daily cases continues to rise

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Hungarian authorities diagnosed 134 people with coronavirus infection and one person died of COVID-19 over the past 24 hours. The number of total infections went up to 811,337 and the death toll reached 30,055.

Before going into the daily statistics, take a look at how August 2021 compares with August 2020 in the coronavirus pandemic. Note that a year ago there were no vaccines, and no Delta variant, either.

The 134 new daily confirmed COVID-19 cases is not only higher than the 109 reported a week ago, but it is also the highest daily figure since early June.

The persistent rise in the number of new cases is not yet followed by a rise in the number of coronavirus-related deaths.

However, there is a constant increase in the number of people with COVID-19 needing hospitalisation and intensive care. There were 92 people with coronavirus infection in hospitals at the end of Tuesday, which marks an increase of 11 over Monday and 17 over the past week. There were 13 people on ventilator, two more than a day earlier.

The chart below shows the 7-day rolling averages of COVID-19 patients in hospitals as a percentage of active cases (distorted, given that the records of active cases does not keep track of the actual number of people with COVID-19, and there has recently been a drastic reclassification from active status to recovered), and those on ventilators as a percentage of those in hospitals, which has been hovering in range between 14% and 16% for a month.

Here are four more charts with the absolute number of COVID-19 patients in hospitals and on ventilators (top two) as well as two ratios (COVID-19 cases in hospital / Active cases, and COVID-19 cases on ventilator / Cases in hospital, bottom two.) The left-hand charts depict a longer period of two months, while the right-hand ones show changes over the past three weeks.

And here’s one that shows the 7-day average changes per day over the past three weeks, and it also attests the rising number of COVID-19 patients in hospitals and on ventilators.

Over the past 24 hours, Hungarian authorities tested 9,346 COVID-19 samples, 1.4% of which came back positive, i.e. the positivity rate has also been climbing, along with the daily averages (3-d, 5-d, 7-d, etc.), the 3-day/21-day ratio and the 7-day average of the 3-day/21-day ratio (see charts below).

As regards the following chart, when the pink curve is under 100%, the pandemic is subsiding, when it is north of 100% it is picking up. Between 90% and 100% is is stagnating.

When the 3d/21d ratio changes, the trend in the daily figures will remain intact for weeks. This curve precedes every other change by three to four weeks, either when it rises or when it falls.

At this point, there's no way of telling how long the daily figures will keep on rising, but this particular ratio will go way up. Once the 7-day average peaks out and starts to drop we'll know that the daily figures will show increases for another three to four weeks. If no restriction measures are implemented to curb the spread of coronavirus, it will be more than four weeks and the rise in the 3d/21d ratio will not stop any time soon.

Practically, if authorities do no start to perform more tests, a lot more, then we can throw the statistics out the window. Without testing the official figures (new daily cases, people in hospital, Covid deaths) will mask reality, and the only way to find out how serious this wave of the pandemic is will be to wait for the Central Statistical Office's (KSH) to publish its mortality data months later.

The vaccination campaign remains extremely slow, with only 5,314 first and 840 second doses administered yesterday. 219,000 people have received a third dose of a COVID-19 vaccine as of Tuesday.