Economy 28 May 2021, 5:29pm

Excess mortality 76% in Hungary on worst week of March compared to 2019

Portfolio

Hungary's Central Statistical Office (KSH) has on Friday released its updated mortality statistics, which shows that 55% more people died in the first week of April 2021 than on the same week of 2020. This was the third revision of 14th week data, and comparisons of March weeks relative to 2019 are even more dramatic.

The KSH has revised its mortality statistics for the second time up to week 15 (April 12-18), so it's time to take a closer look. It has data up to the 17th week (April 26 - May 2), which show excess mortality of 27.6% compared to 2020. (See more about this in the revisions section at the bottom).

Until we have at least one revision (it's always upwardly) for the first 17 weeks, we focus on the period that has been revised at least twice.

However, as previously, here's a little something on excess mortality in March (weeks 10-13) and up to mid-April (weeks 10-15).

Before we'd move on... In the articles below you find three charts that give you a better or at least an alternative 'tool' to see how successfully Hungary managed the coronavirus pandemic.

Moving on.

The upper section of the following tables (green header) shows data for separate weeks: the number of deaths in 2021; the weekly differences over 2020, 2019 and the average of 2015-19; and the ratios of the differences where the annual difference (for 2020, 2019 and 2015-19) is divided by the total weekly deaths of the given (base) year, not 2021. (It would have made no sense to compare 2021 to 2016-2020 because last year’s data would cause quite a distortion due to the coronavirus pandemic. Hence the comparison to 2015-19.)

The lower section (blue header) shows accumulated figures, i.e. the second week shows deaths for the second AND first weeks, the third for the 3rd, 2nd and 1st, etc. This is why the total on week 13 is the same in both tables.

Excess mortality for weeks 12 and 13 were 55 and 63% compared to the same weeks of 2020, 76% and 75% compared to the same weeks of 2019 and 63-65% compared to the 2015-2019 average of the same weeks. The stats office has revised data up to the 13th week four times already.

Excess mortality in the first 15 weeks reached 28.6% over the same period of 2020.

The following tables show revisions up to week 15 between 12 May and 28 May. (A more detailed table of all four revisions for the first 13 weeks are to found at the bottom, but note that total revisions for weeks 1-13 reached 1,269 or 2.98% between 27 April and 28 May.)

Here’s a more concise version of the above tables with a couple more charts to boot.

Preliminary data for the first 17 weeks of 2021 (with four revisions for week 13, three revisions of week 14, two revisions of week 15, and one revisions for week 16) show 27.6% excess mortality over 2020.

Here's a better visualisation of changes in excess mortality in a weekly breakdown up to the 15th week of 2021.

And, as promised, a breakdown of the four revisions for the first 13 weeks. All data are to be revised upwardly, but the real nasty figures should be expected for April.