Economy 20 May 2021, 6:00am

A beacon in a dark maze of raw data... - Sorry, it's about excess mortality in Hungary

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Hungary’s Central Statistical Office (KSH) has published mortality data for the first time for the 16th week of 2021, and revised its death stats for the first 13 weeks for the third time. The upward revision exceeded 1,000. Excess mortality for March alone was over 50% relative to March 2020, and over 70% on the worst weeks compared to the same weeks of 2019.

This is the last time we put the spotlight on the KSH mortality statistics revision up to the 13th week, promise. The next will be up to the 15th week, but we already have a first estimate for the 16th week (see below), and two revisions for the 14th week (3,898, +193) and one revision for the 15th week (3,238, +107).

Excess mortality in March 2021

16,214 people have died in Hungary in weeks 10-13 (March 8-Apr 4) this year. Since 27 April, this marks an upward revision of 669. The stats office will keep revising the figures for months and the final data could be higher by up to 2,000.
10,574 people died in weeks 10-13 (March 2-29) in 2020
10,336 people died in weeks 10-13 (March 4-31) in 2019
10,747 people died in weeks 10-13 in 2015-2019 (average).

Excess mortality in weeks 10-13 in Hungary was:

5,444 people (+53.3%) relative to 2020
5,692 people (+57.0%) relative to 2019
5,271 people (+50.9%) relative to 2015-2019 average

Here's a handful of coronavirus-related analysis that might peak your interest.

Dreadful weekly numbers

The upper section (green header) shows data for separate weeks: the number of deaths in 2021; the weekly differences over 2020, 2019 and the average of 2015-19; and the ratios of the differences where the annual difference (for 2020, 2019 and 2015-19) is divided by the total weekly deaths of the given (base) year, not 2021. (It would have made no sense to compare 2021 to 2016-2020 because last year’s data would cause quite a distortion due to the coronavirus pandemic. Hence the comparison to 2015-19.)

The lower section (blue header) shows accumulated figures, i.e. the second week shows deaths for the second AND first weeks, the third for the 3rd, 2nd and 1st, etc. This is why the total on week 13 is the same in both tables.

March already stands out in terms of excess mortality, but these are preliminary data and the KSH will continue to revise them and always upwardly. (April will be even worse.)

EXCESS MORTALITY FOR WEEKS 12 AND 13 WERE OVER 51% AND 63%, RESPECTIVELY, COMPARED TO THE SAME WEEKS OF 2020, WHILE IT WAS 72 to 75% RELATIVE TO THE SAME WEEKS OF 2019 AND OVER 60% COMPARED TO THE 2015-19 AVERAGE OF THE SAME TWO WEEKS.

The stats office revised the number of deaths for March upwardly by 669 in three steps.

The upward revision for the first 13 weeks totalled 1,003, with 358 on the first, 375 on the second, and 270 on the thrid revision.

EXCESS MORTALITY REACHED 25.7% IN THE FIRST 13 WEEKS OVER THE SAME PERIOD OF 2020.

The table below shows the revisions carried out by the KSH since 27 April.

Here’s a more concise version of the above tables with a couple more charts to boot.

The first 16 weeks...

Preliminary data up to the 16th week -- with one revision for week 15 (+107) and two revisions for week 14 (+193) -- shows 26.9% excess mortality over 2020.

Note that the stats office is already up at 143,161 deaths in 2020 and the number will rise with the revisions, albeit not drastically. That corresponds “only” to a 10.7% excess mortality compared to 2019. Yet, when you compare relevant periods, i.e. eight months of the second and third waves between 1 September 2020 and 1 May 2021, excess mortality jumps to 35%. See more about this at the link below.

Who is responsible?

No, not for the deaths, that's another story. For presenting the data to you, the reader. Don't think for a second that the KSH will be a beacon of clarity in the dark maze of raw data. It won't endulge you with all kinds of charts, let alone explanations and conclusions. That's not its job, although someone in management should occasionally take a peek at the website of Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, and 'steal' a couple of ideas how statistics can be made hip, fancy, cool, or however they describe appealing or eye-catching things these days.

The figures are there, you only need to work with them, create tables and charts, using only the four basic operations. And it is or at least it should be the job of journalists. To present the raw figures in a more or less easily digestible format. To let people see what they need to see, because their lives may depend upon this knowledge. (Big kudos to Balázs Pártos by the way.)