Shall we be slaves? Shall we be free? These are the questions. Answer me!

The missing 100,000

Balázs Pártos, a relentless seeker of meaning in coronavirus-related statistics, has published a couple of charts on his Facebook page today, and – surprise, surprise – they are rather shocking.

But what is the most shocking about his posts? Is it what the charts show? Maybe, maybe not. Sometimes it is just a chart, a couple of curves – steep or flattish – columns of different height and colour. They can be meaningless for the untrained eye. That is where the conclusions of data analyses come in. These can be shocking too. And boy, do they deliver the shock. But what may be the biggest shock of all – and this is particularly true in this case – is that

these figures are right under our noses.

Okay, let’s see those charts, shall we?

Balázs used, as always, only official data. This time the sources were the Coronavirus Task Force and the official government website (koronavirus.gov.hu) dedicated to COVID-19 news, reports and stats. (Mind you, none of these indulge us with a barrage of reliable and transparent data, though. But it is what it is.)

The charts are based on absolute figures and show a ratio, as well. All data are 7-day averages.

The chart on the left is for the period between 1 August 2020 and 17 May 2021, while the one on the right-hand side spans from 1 October 2020 to 17 May 2021, because the decline of the ratio showing the number of people in mandatory quarantine divided by the number of active COVID-19 cases dropped so sharply from Sept to mid-Oct that it cannot be seen on the left-hand chart.

The conclusion, as sarcastic it may sound, is this: Hungarians LOVE freedom. They hate being locked up. Or who knows. See for yourself.

Q&A

Balázs’s posts are read by several thousand people and they do ask really smart questions. Here’s a selection of those with answers.

There are 130,000 active COVID-19 cases currently (the 7-day average is slightly over 150,000) with about 2,200 people in hospital with coronavirus infection, and about 16,000 to 17,000 in mandatory quarantine. 130,000 – 2,000 – 17,000 = 111,000. Where are the other active cases? Walking among us in the streets? Did I get something wrong?

A: No you did not get it wrong. More than 100,000 people with coronavirus infection are potentially walking among us in the streets. Unless they sit on their asses at home. But officially they do not have to do so.

So, these active cases were in hospitals or among us?

A: 80% among us (earlier it was around 90% on occasion), 2 to 5% in hospitals, the rest in quarantine.

Is it possible that some of those that have officially recovered remained in active status by mistake?

A: Their infection status is ‘active’, and they are recommended to stay at home. They are not obliged to do so; they are officially not in mandatory home quarantine. They can stay home if they feel like it, or they can go shopping to Tesco or sit on a terrace and enjoy a nice cold one.

And then we can add those that are asymptomatic and are not even registered as infected…

A: I think that’s three to four times this many people. Someone [in this group] estimates that a lot more people have contracted COVID-19 and recovered undetected, in which case we’re talking about seven or eight times as many people [in comparison with those who are officially 'active']. In the former case add 300,000 to 400,000 people and in the latter some 700,000 to 800,000. Altogether half a million or a million, up to you.

It’s clear that those awaiting test results are in mandatory quarantine. But if you’re an active case, don’t you automatically go into quarantine mode?

A: Only doctors tell you to stay home if you’re infected. This cannot be enforced or controlled. If you had a positive test at a private health service provider, you are regarded as infected but will be considered recovered three weeks later even without a negative test if you’re not in hospital or dead. The police do not have data on who is in home quarantine on a mere recommendation, hence there’s no control. It’s entirely up to you if you stay home or go out. Also, GPs report that you recover whenever they find time for it, and they’re under a huge load… but let’s say two to three weeks after the positive test. If you are discharged from a hospital, you are considered as recovered.

Go hard or go home

So, here’s the real shocker again. These data are shared with the public every single day by the Coronavirus Task Force (Operatív Törzs). These statistics are right under our noses.

Infected people with a recommendation to stay home have two choices: they can stay home, or they can choose to go out.

You also have two choices: you either let this brief statistical ‘delicacy’ ruin you appetite, or you can choose to swallow it, smile and just shrug off the whole thing.

(The headline is a quote from the National Song (Nemzeti dal), written by famous Hungarian poet Sándor Petőfi (1823–1849) and translated by Alan Dixon.)