COVID-19 in Hungary: fatalities hit another record high
The 6.636 new cases represent the second highest daily figure since the outbreak began in March. Although statistics from Hungarian pandemic authorities are becoming increasingly difficult to interpret, todays figure is still an unpleasant surprise as the spread of the virus does not appear to be slowing one month after the lockdown was re-introduced.
The curve indicates that the virus continues to spread at a faster rate in Hungary. Assuming testing practices nearly identical to those in mid-November, the lockdown has not brought the desired result. This is strange because the pandemic curve in countries that have introduced similarly strict measures (e.g. the Czech Republic, Poland, Austria or Belgium) have taken a sharp turn as a result. At the same time, it is possible that statistics are distorted by the nationwide rapid testing programme, but the daily data release makes no mention of that. At a press conference last week, the Operational Corps said the national testing programme for endangered groups and the tests of mobile screening stations could bring a spike in virus figures.
The 182 fatalities represent a new daily high in Hungary and also do not indicate a slowing of the outbreak. According to mortality statistics released yesterday, the number of deaths in Hungary in the first week of November was 40% higher than a year earlier. Unfortunately, today’s figure confirms that we can expect even higher numbers in coming weeks.
In another display of inconsistency in data, the number of severe cases is improving. The number of people treated in hospital and receiving artificial ventilation has stagnated. The natural progress would be first seeing a decrease in new cases, then in severe cases, and finally in fatalities, with delays of a few weeks in between. The optimistic interpretation is that the number of new cases is an outlier due to the large number of rapid tests, and the outbreak is actually easing off in Hungary as shown by the number of hospital patients. In that case, we should start seeing lower fatalities soon.
It would help assessing the actual number of new infections if we had reliable data on the number of tests applied and the ratio of positive results. However, the government is reporting the results of rapid tests in an ad hoc manner, in major blocks of several days at once, which means that the positivity rate fluctuates absurdly between 2% and 70% form one day to the next. As a result, we have no idea how today’s 25% positivity rate compares to mid-November data. It is possible that positive results from rapid tests are included in the numerator, while the rapid tests themselves are not counted in the denominator.
Based on data form the past 7 days, the virus appears to be spreading fastest in Békés, Vas and Veszprém counties.
Cover photo: Getty Images
